Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, June 22, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.8 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in April.
- The leading index increased sharply in April following a small decline in March and no change in February, and the strength among the leading indicators has become somewhat more widespread. With April’s gain, the leading index continues to increase at a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate, an improvement from the second half of 2004, but still well below the 4.0 to 5.0 percent growth from early 2003 to early 2004.
- The coincident index continued to increase in April, keeping it on a steadily rising trend. At the same time, real GDP growth has been fluctuating in the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range for the last two years, including 3.5 percent growth in the first quarter of 2005. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that this moderate rate of economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators: Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the Spanish equity price index declined in April.
With the increase of 0.8 percent in April, the leading index now stands at 138.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in March and was unchanged in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.5 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincedent Indicators: All four components that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in April, the coincident index now stands at 148.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in March and increased 0.2 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 2.0 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.