Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, April 19, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain declined 0.7 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in February.
- The leading index fell sharply in February and there were downward revisions to the increases reported for the previous two months. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index continues to fluctuate in the 0.0 to 2.0 percent range (annual rate), as it has been doing for almost a year. This is well below the 4.0 to 5.0 percent growth through early 2004, and there has been an almost equal balance between positive and negative contributions from the components of the leading index.
- The coincident index increased again in February, keeping it on a steady rising trend. Real GDP growth also has been relatively steady, fluctuating around a 2.5-3.0 percent average rate for the last two years, including 3.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2004. The sluggish growth of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy will continue to grow in the near term, but probably somewhat below the moderate rate of the last two years.
Leading Indicators.Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in February. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The order books survey, job placings, and the capital equipment component of industrial production decreased in February.
With the decline of 0.7 percent in February, the leading index now stands at 136.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in January and decreased 0.1 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 0.4 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in February. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, and real imports*. Industrial production excluding construction declined in February.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in February, the coincident index now stands at 148.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in January and increased 0.2 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 1.8 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) April 18, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.