Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, March 22, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.6 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in January.
- The leading index increased sharply in January, but December’s increase was revised down to a small gain. As a result, the leading index has been increasing at a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate in recent months, and the strength among the leading indicators continues to be widespread. However, this recent growth rate is still below the 5.0 to 6.0 percent growth of the leading index that occurred through early 2004.
- The coincident index also increased in January, keeping it on a steady and moderate rising trend. Real GDP growth has been relatively steady as well, fluctuating around a 2.5-3.0 percent annual rate, including 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests this moderate rate of economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, the Spanish equity price index, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The order books survey and the inverted long-term government bond yield decreased in January.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in January, the leading index now stands at 137.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and increased 0.2 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 1.2 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in January.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in January, the coincident index now stands at 147.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and increased 0.5 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 1.2 percent, and two of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) March 21, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.