Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, February 22, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.5 percent and the coincident index increased 0.7 percent in December.
- The leading index increased for the second consecutive month in December. With this month’s gain, the growth rate of the leading index has picked up to a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate in recent months, but this is still below the 5.0 to 6.0 percent growth reached through early 2004. In addition, the strength among the leading indicators continues to be widespread.
- The coincident index also increased in December, keeping it on a moderately rising trend (about a 3.0 percent annual rate). At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 2.8 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2004, including 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter. The current behavior of the leading index suggests that economic growth should continue at about this same rate, which is in line with the long-term average growth rate of the Spanish economy.
Leading Indicators.Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and job placings. The order books survey decreased in December.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in December, the leading index now stands at 137.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in November and declined 0.1 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.5 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, and real imports*. Industrial production excluding construction declined in December.
With the increase of 0.7 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 147.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in November and decreased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.6 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) February 18, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.