Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, January 19, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in November.
- The leading index increased in November following no change in October. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index has continued to improve in recent months to about a 1.5 to 2.5 percent annual rate, but this is still below the 5.0 to 6.0 percent growth reached through early 2004. The strength among the components of the leading index has also become more widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased in November, and has been on a flat to slightly rising trend since late 2003. At the same time, real GDP has been increasing at about a 2.4 percent annual rate so far in 2004 (including 2.4 percent in the third quarter), about the same as the average rate since mid-2002. The current behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy will continue to grow in the near term, at about the same average rate as in the last few years.
Leading Indicators.Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, the capital equipment component of industrial production, job placings, the Spanish equity price index, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 decreased in November.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 137.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and increased 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.0 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, and real imports*. Industrial production excluding construction declined in November.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 146.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.3 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) January 18, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.