Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 21, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain was unchanged, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in October.
- The leading index was unchanged in October following a large increase in September. The growth rate of the leading index has improved slightly in recent months, to about a 0.5 to 1.5 percent annual rate, but is still below the 5.0 to 6.0 percent growth reached earlier this year. The strengths and weaknesses among the components of the leading index are about equally balanced.
- The coincident index increased slightly in October, and has been on a gradually rising trend since late 2003. At the same time, real GDP has been increasing at about a 2.4 percent annual rate so far this year (including 2.4 percent in the third quarter), about the same as the average rate since mid-2002. The recent behavior of the leading index is consistent with the economy growing at or slightly below this rate in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the order books survey, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. Job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production decreased in October.
Holding steady in October, the leading index now stands at 136.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in September and decreased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.7 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, the retail sales survey. Industrial production excluding construction declined in October.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in October, the coincident index now stands at 145.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and was unchanged in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.1 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) December 20, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.