Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, November 16, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.6 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in September.
- The leading index increased sharply in September following a small decline in August. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index has picked up slightly from the essentially flat rate in the previous several months, but it is still below the 5.0-6.0 percent growth reached earlier this year. While the money supply was the major contributor to September’s increase in the leading index, this month’s strength was more widespread.
- The coincident index also increased in September, and has been on an upward trend since late 2003. At the same time, real GDP has increased at about a 2.5 percent average annual rate over the last year (through the second quarter of 2004). The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy will continue to grow in the near term, at or perhaps slightly below the past year’s average rate.
Leading Indicators.Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the order books survey, job placings, the Spanish equity price index, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The capital equipment component of industrial production decreased in September.
With the 0.6 percent increase in September, the leading index now stands at 136.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in August and increased 0.4 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 0.5 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.All four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 146.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in August and increased 0.4 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.7 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) November 15, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.