Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 17, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.1 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.5 percent in June.
- The leading index fell slightly again in June following two small declines in May and April. Job placings and a survey of order books were the major contributors to June’s weakness. The growth rate of the leading index has slowed into the 1.0 to 2.0 percent range (annual rate), and the weakness has become more widespread. However, it is too soon to conclude that the upward trend in the leading index that has been underway for two years has ended.
- The coincident index increased again in June, and has been growing at about a 3.5 percent annual rate since the end of 2002. Correspondingly, real GDP has been increasing at about a 2.8 percent annual rate over the last four quarters for which data are available (through the first quarter of 2004). The slowdown in the growth rate of the leading index suggests that the economy should continue growing in the near term, at or slightly below its recent average rate.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in June. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, job placings, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish equity price index increased in June.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in June, the leading index now stands at 135.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in May and decreased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.6 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 145.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 2.3 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) August 13, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.