Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, July 20, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.1 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in May.
- The leading index fell slightly again in May, with job placings the major contributor to the decline. It is unlikely that the slight declines in the last two months will end the upward trend in the leading index that has been underway for two years. Nonetheless, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed into the 2.0 to 3.0 percent range (annual rate) so far this year, down from a 4.0 to 5.0 percent range in the second half of last year.
- Real GDP increased at a 2.8 percent average annual rate over the last two quarters for which data are available (the fourth quarter of 2003 and first quarter of 2004). In addition, the coincident index continued increasing in May, keeping it on a steadily rising trend. The slower growth rate of the leading index in recent months suggests that economic growth will continue at or somewhat below its recent rate.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in May. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the order books survey* increased in May.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in May, the leading index now stands at 135.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.4 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.0 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in May.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 144.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in April and increased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 2.1 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) July 19, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include the order books survey.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.