Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, June 22, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.1 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in April.
- The leading index decreased slightly in April following consecutive gains over the last year, with the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and government bond yield being the major contributors to this month’s weakness. The leading index has been fluctuating around a 4.0 percent annual rate since early 2003, with growth of about 2.7 percent so far this year. The coincident index increased in April, keeping it on a steadily rising trend since the third quarter of 2003.
- Correspondingly, real GDP increased at a 2.8 percent average annual rate over the last two quarters. The upward trend in the leading index so far this year suggests that the current rate of economic growth is likely to persist in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are job placings, the order books survey*, and the Spanish equity price index. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and the capital equipment component of industrial production declined in April.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in April, the leading index now stands at 135.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in March and increased 0.2 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.8 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, the retail sales survey, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in April, the coincident index now stands at 144.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in March and increased 0.5 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.9 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) June 21, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include the order books survey.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.