Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, April 20, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.2 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in February.
- The leading index has continued increasing steadily from its most recent low in March 2003. Over this period, the leading index has increased at almost a 5.0 percent annual rate, and this strength is still widespread. There has also been steady and widespread growth in the coincident index through February.
- Correspondingly, real GDP growth picked up to a 2.8 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2003. The persistent above-trend growth of the leading index suggests some further improvement in the rate of economic growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in February. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The order books survey declined in February, while the inverted long-term government bond yield remained flat.
With the 0.2 percent increase in February, the leading index now stands at 135.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in January and increased 0.2 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.3 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in February. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction*, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in February, the coincident index now stands at 143.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in January and 0.4 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 1.9 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) April 19, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.