Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, January 21, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.6 percent, while the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in November.
- With November’s gain, the leading index continued the upward trend since the most recent low in March 2003, and the strength has been widespread.
- Despite November’s slight decline, the coincident index has been on a moderate upward trend since early 2002. Most of the month-to-month fluctuations in the coincident index in recent months reflect volatility in the retail sales survey.
- Real GDP growth picked up to almost a 3.0 percent annual rate over the last two quarters from an average of 2.0 percent in late 2002 and early 2003. The continued widespread growth in the leading index suggests further improvement in the rate of economic growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are job placings, the order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish equity price index. The inverted long-term government bond yield declined in November.
With the 0.6 percent increase in November, the leading index now stands at 133.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.8 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction*. The retail sales survey declined in November.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 141.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in both October and September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.8 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) January 16, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes:Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.