Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, October 21, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain remained unchanged, while the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in August.
- The leading index has been increasing at a 3-4 percent annual rate over the last year and a half. However, the combination of no change in August and a downward revision to July's increase (from 0.6 to 0.2 percent) suggests a somewhat more cautious near-term outlook than had been indicated last month.
- The coincident index continued increasing in August, which keeps growth in this index in line with its trend over the past year and a half. Correspondingly, real GDP growth has increased at a 2.5 percent annual rate over this period.
- Despite no change this month, the leading index suggests a continuation of moderate economic growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in August. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish equity price index. Three of the six components decreased in August. The negative contributors—in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller—are the order books survey, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and job placings.
Holding steady in August, the leading index now stands at 132.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in July and increased 0.5 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.5 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction*. The retail sales survey declined in August.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in August, the coincident index now stands at 141.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in July and increased 0.1 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.7 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) October 20, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.