Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, September 18, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.6 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in July.
- The leading index increased significantly again in July. The leading index has now increased by 2.2 percent (a 6.8-percent annual rate) over the last four months, resuming the strong upward trend underway since late 2002.
- The coincident index also continued increasing significantly in July. The growth rate of the coincident index was about 4.0 percent (annual rate) over the last six months, continuing the pickup from a low of near zero in late 2001.
- The recent strength in both the leading and the coincident indexes has been widespread. Correspondingly, real GDP growth has picked up to about 2.5 percent in recent quarters, and the strong growth of the leading index suggests further improvement in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, the Spanish equity price index, and the order books survey*. Two of the six components decreased in July. The negative contributors—in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller—are the inverted long-term government bond yield and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in July, the leading index now stands at 132.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in June and increased 0.7 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 2.5 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 141.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in June and increased 0.3 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 2.1 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) September 16, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include order book survey.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.