Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 19, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.5 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in June.
- The leading index has increased significantly for the last three months. Continuing strength in orders and the stock market, as well as a turnaround in job placings, contributed to the gain in the leading index in June.
- The coincident index increased moderately again in June. The strength in the coincident index continued to be widespread, with the six-month diffusion index at 100 percent for the thirteenth consecutive month.
- A resumption of strong growth in the leading index is signaling a pick up in economic activity over the near term.
Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish equity price index, and job placings. Two of the six components decreased in June. The negative contributors—in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller—are the capital equipment component of industrial production and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 132.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.4 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors —in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller—are final household consumption* and real imports*. The retail sales survey decreased and industrial production excluding construction* remained unchanged.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 139.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.6 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.3 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) August 15, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports. There are no series in the leading index that were estimated.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.