Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, July 17, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that both the leading index and the coincident index for Spain increased 0.2 percent in May.
- The leading index for Spain continued increasing in May. A strong financial sector and orders contributed to this month’s gain.
- The coincident index also continued its upward trend in May. With this month’s increase, the coincident index has been rising for the last eleven months, and its six-month diffusion index has remained at 100 percent.
- The leading index signaled moderating economic growth in late 2001 and early 2002. This has occurred and now the index is suggesting a moderate pickup. However, the leading index is not signaling a return to the very strong rate of economic growth that occurred in the late 1990s.
Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the inverted long-term government bond yield, the order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index. Two of the six components decreased in May. The negative contributors—in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller—are job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 130.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in April and decreased 0.4 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.6 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction*, real imports*, and the retail sales survey.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 140.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in April and increased 0.1 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.5 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) July 15, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates is Spanish contribution to Euro M2.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.