Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, June 19, 2003
As announced last month, this month's release incorporates benchmark revisions to the composite indexes for Spain. The benchmark revisions bring the composite indexes up-to-date with revisions in component data and are maintenance procedures typically done once a year. In addition, because two components of the leading index were discontinued in December 2002, the capital equipment component of industrial production (IP) was benchmarked and the construction component of IP is no longer used in calculating the leading index. Components of the coincident index remain the same. The effects of these revisions on the indexes are very small, as expected. (Due to these revisions, month-to-month changes in the composite indexes will no longer be comparable to those issued prior to this benchmark.) For more information, visit our web site at www.globalindicators.org.
The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and coincident indexes for Spain increased 0.4 percent in April.
- The leading index in Spain increased in April after declining in March. Increases in stock prices, orders and capital equipment production contributed to this month’s gain in the leading index.
- Despite slight weakness earlier this year, the leading index continues its upward trend since early 2002. Both the one-month and six-month diffusion indexes show that strength among the leading components remains widespread.
- The coincident index, an important measure of current economic activity, continued to increase through April. The six-month diffusion index has been well above 50 percent in the last eleven months.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, the Spanish equity price index, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. Three of the six components decreased in April. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in April, the leading index now stands at 130.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in March and increased 0.6 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.1 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in April, the coincident index now stands at 139.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in March and increased 0.4 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.1 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) June 17, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports. There is no series that was based on The Conference Board estimates in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.