Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, March 18, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in January.
- After rising strongly in October and November 2002, the leading index declined again in January. A sharp drop in the order books survey, coupled with a sluggish stock market, contributed to this month’s decline in the leading index.
- The coincident index continued its modest but sustained growth into January. The strength in the components of the coincident index is still widespread, as shown by the six- month diffusion index staying at 100 percent for the last six months.
- Taken together, the composite indexes suggest that the pace of economic activity in Spain is likely to continue on an upward trend but the two consecutive monthly declines in the leading index point to a downside risk, which could lead to a slowdown.
Leading Indicators. Only two of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors—in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one— are inverted long-term government bond yield and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index decreased in January. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—include the order books survey, the Spanish equity price index, the construction component of industrial production, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. Job placings remained unchanged in January.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in January, the leading index now stands at 155.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in December and increased 1.3 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 3.3 percent, and five of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, and real imports*. Industrial production excluding construction* remained unchanged in January.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in January, the coincident index now stands at 137.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index held steady in December and increased 0.2 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 1.8 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) March 14, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are construction component of industrial production and capital equipment component of industrial production.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.