Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, February 18, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.3 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in December.
- After two months of strong gains, the leading index declined in December. The leading index is now 3.2 percent above its December 2001 level. A sharp drop in the stock market, coupled with weakness in the financial and construction indicators, contributed to this month’s decline in the leading index.
- The coincident index decreased slightly in December, after increasing for the last five consecutive months. However, the strength in the components of both the leading and coincident indexes are still widespread, as shown by the six-month diffusion indexes, which are both well above 50 percent.
- Together, although the growth in both leading and coincident indexes is slower in 2002 than 2001, the pace of economic activity in Spain is holding up fairly well.
Leading Indicators. Only two of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors—in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one— are inverted long-term government bond yield and the order books survey. Five of the seven components that make up the leading index decreased in December. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—include the Spanish equity price index, the construction component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and job placings.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in December, the leading index now stands at 154.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.2 percent in November and increased 2.5 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 2.4 percent, and five of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction*, and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined in December.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in December, the coincident index now stands at 136.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in November and increased 0.5 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.3 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) February 14, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports. There are no estimated series in the leading index this month.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.