Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 17, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 2.5 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in October.
- After three consecutive monthly declines, the leading index rebounded in October. All seven components of the leading index made improvements in October. A sharp recovery in the order books survey and large gains in the financial sector were the driving force behind the increase in the leading index in October.
- The strength in the leading index continues to be widespread, as shown by the six-month diffusion index rising above 80 percent for the past two months.
- The coincident index continued to grow in October, registering its fourth consecutive monthly increase. After leveling off in the early half of 2001, the upward trend in this index seems to be picking up in recent months.
Leading Indicators. All seven components that make up the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— include the order books survey, the Spanish equity price index, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the construction component of industrial production, job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and inverted long-term government bond yield.
With the increase of 2.5 percent in October, the leading index now stands at 152.9
(1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in September and decreased 0.4 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 3.5 percent, and six of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include the retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction*, final household consumption*, and real imports*.
*See notes under data availability.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in October, the coincident index now stands at 135.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.4 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.0 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) December 16, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports. There are no estimated series in the leading index this month.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.