Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, August 15, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 1.3 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in June.
- The leading index increased sharply in June and it is now 0.2 percent above its highest value attained in January 2001. Increases in industrial orders, the construction component of industrial production, bond yield, and money supply contributed to this month’s gain in the leading index.
- Despite the strength in the leading index this month, the gain over the past six months was mainly concentrated in the construction and manufacturing sectors, as shown by the six-month diffusion index remaining well below 50 percent.
- The coincident index declined this month for the first time since the beginning of this year. A sharp decrease in the retail sales coupled with a decline in industrial production contributed to this month’s decline in the coincident index.
Leading Indicators. Five of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— include the order books survey, the construction component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, inverted long-term government bond yield, and job placings*. Two of the seven components of the leading index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the index occurred in the Spanish equity price index and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 1.3 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 151.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.0 percent, and two of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors include final household consumption* and real imports*. The retail sales survey and industrial production excluding construction both declined in June.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 134.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index held steady in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.1 percent, and two of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 6 P.M. (ET) August 13, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates is job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.