Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, September 17, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.4 percent and the coincident index increased 0.6 percent in July.
- A continuous decline in the stock market, coupled with a sharp drop in the construction and capital equipment portion of industrial production, contributed to the deterioration in the leading index in July.
- Despite the decrease in the leading index this month, the components of the leading index have improved, indicated by the six-month diffusion index increasing to above 50 percent for the first time in the last five months.
- After a mild decline in June, the coincident index increased again this month, stimulated by strength in retail sales and industrial production.
Leading Indicators. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributorsin order from the largest positive contributor to the smallestinclude inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings*, and the order books survey. Three of the seven components of the leading index decreased in July. The negative contributors to the index contributorsin order from the largest negative contributor to the smallestinclude the Spanish equity price index, the construction component of industrial production, and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the decrease of 0.4 percent in July, the leading index now stands at 150.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.5 percent in June and increased 0.9 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 2.1 percent, and four of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 64.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors -in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- include industrial production excluding construction, the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 135.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in June and held steady in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.3 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) September 16, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates is job placings.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.