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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Friday, May 23, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in March.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell slightly in March, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. A large negative contribution from net insufficient inventories more than offset positive contributions from stock prices and the (inverted) real exchange rate. With this month’s decline, the leading economic index fell 2.5 percent (about a ?5.0 percent annual rate) between September 2013 and March 2014 — roughly matching the rate of decline for the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses over the past six months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in March. Between September 2013 and March 2014, the coincident economic grew 0.9 percent (about a 1.8 percent annual rate), up moderately from the increase of 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by a 0.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2013, down from 3.9 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.
  • The LEI for Mexico has been declining since December of last year, and as a result its six-month change has fallen deeper into negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI’s growth has been rising slightly since the summer of last year. Despite the steady growth in the CEI, the persistent weakness in the LEI over the last six months suggests that the current moderate pace of economic activity is unlikely to accelerate in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in March. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — were stock prices, (inverted) real exchange rate, and the industrial production construction component. Net insufficient inventories decreased in March.  The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.2 percent decrease in March, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 120.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.7 percent in February and declined 1.4 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index decreased 2.5 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in March. The positive contributors — from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one — are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production. Retail sales declined in March.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 122.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in February and increased 0.1 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 0.9 percent, with two of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. May 20, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI.  The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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