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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell for a third consecutive month in February. Large declines in inventories (inverted) and stock prices more than offset positive contributions from the construction component of industrial production and oil prices. With this month’s decline, the leading economic index fell by 1.9 percent (about a -3.8 percent annual rate) between August 2013 and February 2014, a small improvement from the decline of 2.1 percent (about a -4.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in February. The coincident economic index grew by 1.0 percent (about a 2.0 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending February 2014, moderately up from the increase of 0.7 percent (about a 1.3 percent annual rate) between February 2012 and August 2013. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 0.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2013, down from the 3.9 percent growth (annual rate) in the third quarter.
  • The LEI for Mexico has declined in four of the last six months.  As a result, the six-month change in the LEI has been negative since the beginning of this year, with widespread weaknesses among its components. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico increased modestly again, and its six-month growth rate has improved compared to the very weak first half of last year. The negative growth and widespread weakness in the LEI over the last six months suggests that the current moderate pace of economic activity is unlikely to pick up in the coming months.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors to the index are the industrial production construction component and the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil.  Net insufficient inventories, stock prices, and the (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in February.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.5 percent decrease in February, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 121.2 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 1.4 percent in January and declined 0.2 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 1.9 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production.  Retail sales* declined in February.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 123.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in both January and December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 1.0 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. April 16, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI.  The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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