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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Monday, December 16, 2013

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Next month's release will incorporate benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Every January, data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at:
or contact indicators@conference-board.org.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in October, offsetting a small gain in September. Oil prices and the construction component of industrial production made large negative contributions to the index this month. With the small decline, the six-month change in the leading economic index stands at -2.0 percent (about a -3.9 percent annual rate) between April and October 2013, a sharp reversal from the increase of 3.0 percent (about a 6.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in October. During the six-month period ending October 2013, the coincident economic index grew 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate), slightly faster than the growth of 0.2 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 3.4 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, up from the contraction of 2.2 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2013.
  • The LEI for Mexico declined in October following three consecutive gains. Its six-month growth rate, although improved slightly from the third quarter, remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico increased modestly in October, and its six-month growth rate was slightly up compared to the first half of this year. Taken together, continued widespread weakness in the LEI in recent months suggests that economic growth is unlikely to pick up through the beginning of 2014.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in October. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are net insufficient inventories, the (inverted) real exchange rate, stock prices, and the (inverted) federal funds rate.  The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the industrial production construction component decreased in October.    

With the 0.2 percent decrease in October, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 124.7 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.3 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 2.0 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in October. The positive contributors —from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production.  Retail sales declined* in October.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 123.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in September and increased 0.2 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.4 percent, with two of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. December 12, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI or The Conference Board CEI for Mexico. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Global Indicators

StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2013

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2014: Time to realize the opportunities for growth

From the Chief Economist

U.S. growth continues at moderate pace with momentum beginning to lose some steam

GDP is projected to grow by 2.0 percent in 2014 with the second half of this year revised lower from an average of a 2.8 percent pace to about 2.5 percent pace.

Read the article
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