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Released: Wednesday, September 25, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in July.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased moderately in July after three consecutive declines. The improvement was driven mostly by large positive contributions from oil prices and the (inverted) real exchange rate. The leading economic index decreased by 1.3 percent (about a -2.5 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending July 2013, a reversal from the increase of 1.9 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in July. Between January and July 2013, the coincident economic index grew by 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate), slower than the growth of 0.8 percent (about a 1.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2013, after increasing 0.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of the year.
  • The LEI for Mexico picked up slightly in July, however, its six-month growth rate has moved into negative territory for the first time this year. Moreover, the CEI for Mexico has increased slightly after being flat for the past two months. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity will continue to improve, but likely at a very slow pace through the end of 2013.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in July. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the (inverted) real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, and stock prices. The Industrial production construction component decreased in July, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.2 percent increase in July, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 124.4 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 1.6 percent in June and declined 0.9 percent in May.  During the six-month span through July, the index decreased 1.3 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 41.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.   All components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in July. The positive contributors —from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— were retail sales, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in July, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 123.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in June and May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.4 percent, with two of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. September 23, 2013.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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StraightTalk®

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