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Released: Monday, August 19, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in June.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell again in June, with the real exchange rate (inverted), net insufficient inventories and the construction component of industrial production making large negative contributions. The leading economic index decreased by 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending June 2013, a reversal from the increase of 1.3 percent (about a 2.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Despite recent declines, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in June. Between December 2012 and June 2013, the coincident economic index grew by 0.2 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate), slower than the 1.0 percent increase (about a 2.0 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 1.8 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2013, down from 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of last year.
  • The LEI for Mexico has been declining for three consecutive months, and its six-month growth rate has dipped slightly into the negative territory. However, the strengths among its components still remain widespread. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico has been virtually flat in the first half of 2013, with its six-month growth rate decelerating and weaknesses among its components widespread. Taken together, the recent declines in the LEI and CEI suggest that although the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, the rate of expansion is likely to be more modest.

LEADING INDICATORS. None of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in June. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one — were the (inverted) real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component, stock prices, and the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 1.8 percent decrease in June, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 123.2 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.6 percent in May and declined 0.9 percent in April.  During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 0.3 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Only one of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in June. The positive contributor was the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries).  Industrial production and retail sales* declined in June.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 123.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in May and April.  During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.2 percent, with one of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. August 15, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI.  The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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