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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Monday, July 22, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) increased 0.1 percent in May.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in May for the second consecutive month, with a large negative contribution from net inventories more than offsetting an increase from the construction component of industrial production. Despite this month’s decline, the leading economic index increased by 1.9 percent (about a 3.8 percent annual rate) between November 2012 and May 2013, up from the increase of 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in May. Between November 2012 and May 2013, the coincident economic index grew by 0.2 percent (about a 0.3 percent annual rate), much slower than the 1.7 percent increase (about a 3.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2013, down from the 2.7 percent increase (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of last year.
  • The LEI for Mexico decreased again in May. However, its  six-month growth rate is still higher than in the second half of last year. At the same time, the CEI for Mexico has been essentially flat since November 2012, and its six-month growth rate has continued to moderate in recent months. Despite the recent weaknesses in the CEI, the LEI and its components still suggest that the economy will continue to expand in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Only one of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributor to the index was the industrial production construction component.  Net insufficient inventories, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, and the (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in May.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.6 percent decrease in May, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 125.5 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 1.0 percent in April and increased 0.5 percent in March.  During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.9 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Only one of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributor was the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries).  Industrial production and retail sales* declined in May.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 123.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.3 percent in March.  During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.2 percent, with one of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. July 18, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI.  The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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