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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Thursday, April 25, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased again in February, with net insufficient inventories and oil prices making large positive contributions, which more than offset a decline in stock prices. The leading economic index increased by 3.1 percent (about a 6.2 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending in February, after remaining flat over the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in February. The coincident economic index grew by 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate) between August 2012 and February 2013, slower than the growth of 2.0 percent (about a 4.0 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 3.1 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of the year.
  • The LEI for Mexico increased for the third consecutive month in February, and its six-month growth rate has picked up substantially in recent months. The CEI for Mexico has been flat over the past few months and its growth rate has slowed significantly. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic growth will remain moderate in 2013.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are net insufficient inventories, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the industrial production construction component.  Stock prices and the (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in February. The federal funds rate (inverted) remained unchanged.

With the 0.8 percent increase in February, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 127.1 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 2.0 percent in January and increased 0.2 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index increased 3.1 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  One of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributor was number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Retail sales and industrial production declined in February.

After remaining unchanged in February, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 122.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in January and decreased 0.3 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index increased 0.4 percent, with one of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. April 23, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI or The Conference Board CEI for Mexico.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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