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Released: Monday, March 25, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.9 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in January.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in January, with the construction component of industrial production, net sufficient inventories, and oil prices making the largest positive contributions. The leading economic index increased by 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending January 2013, up from the increase of 0.9 percent (about a 1.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in January. Between July 2012 and January 2013, the coincident economic index grew by 0.7 percent (about a 1.4 percent annual rate), much slower than the growth rate of 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by a 3.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.
  • The LEI for Mexico increased in January — the second consecutive gain — after declining in October and November of last year. The LEI’s six-month growth rate also picked up compared to the first half of 2012. In the meantime, the CEI for Mexico has been flat since last October, and as a result its six-month growth has slowed. Despite the gains in the LEI, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that the economy will continue to expand in the near term, but that the rate of expansion is unlikely to pick up.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in January. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are the industrial production construction component, net insufficient inventories, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the real exchange rate (inverted), and stock prices. The federal funds rate (inverted) remained unchanged.

With the 1.9 percent increase in January, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 126.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in December and declined 0.2 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 1.9 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  One of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in January. The positive contributor was the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries).  Retail sales declined, while industrial production did not change in January.

The Conference Board CEI for Mexico remained unchanged in January, and now stands at 122.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in December and increased 0.3 percent in November.  During the six-month span through January, the index increased 0.7 percent, with one of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. March 21, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There is no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI.  The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2013

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2014: Time to realize the opportunities for growth

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