Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, January 18, 2013
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.3 percent while The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell again in November, with oil prices, the construction component of industrial production, and the (inverted) real exchange rate making large negative contributions. The leading economic index increased by 0.2 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending November 2012, down from the increase of 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly again in November. Between May and November 2012, the coincident economic index grew by 1.8 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate), about the same rate of increase for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by a 1.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2012, down from 3.3 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of the year.
- The LEI for Mexico fell in November. However, its six-month growth rate, although still much slower than during the first half of 2012, has returned to positive territory for the first time since July. Moreover, the CEI for Mexico has continued increasing at a steady pace. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the economy will continue to expand at around its current modest rate in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one — are net insufficient inventories and stock prices. The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the industrial production construction component, and the (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in November, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.
With the 0.3 percent decrease in November, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 122.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in November. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales*.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 123.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.8 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. January 16, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: There is no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.