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Released: Tuesday, December 18, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in October following a small gain last month. Large declines in oil prices and the construction component of industrial production more than offset positive contributions from the (inverted) real exchange rate and stock prices. With this month’s decline, the six-month change in the leading economic index remains negative – contracting by 0.2 percent (about a -0.5 percent annual rate) during the period between April and October 2012, sharply down from the increase of 2.4 percent (about a 4.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in the recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in October. Between April and October 2012, the coincident economic index grew by 1.7 percent (about a 3.4 percent annual rate), slightly faster than the rate of increase for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by a 1.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2012, down from the 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter of the year.
  • The LEI for Mexico fell in October, and has declined in four of the last six months. As a result, its six-month change remains negative through this month. However, the CEI for Mexico increased slightly in October, and its six-month growth rate has been fairly robust throughout this year. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the economy will continue to expand, but the rate of expansion will likely slow in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in October. The positive contributors to the index — from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one — are the (inverted) real exchange rate and stock prices.  The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the industrial production construction component, and net insufficient inventories decreased in October.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.3 percent decrease in October, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 121.4 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and declined 0.2 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index declined 0.2 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in October. The positive contributors —from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales.  Industrial production declined in October.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 121.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.4 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.7 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. December 17, 2012.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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