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Released: Friday, November 16, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) also increased 0.2 percent in September.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased slightly in September, offsetting a small decline in August. Net insufficient inventories made a large negative contribution to the index, while the construction component of industrial production, stock prices, and the (inverted) real exchange rate increased.  Despite this month’s moderate gain, the leading economic index contracted by 0.6 percent (about a -1.1 percent annual rate) between March and September 2012, sharply down from the increase of 3.1 percent (about a 6.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in the last two months. 
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, also increased slightly in September. Between March and September 2012, the coincident economic index grew by 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate), marginally better than the rate of increase for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by a 3.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2012, down from 4.9 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of the year.
  • The LEI for Mexico increased in September, but has declined in four of the last six months. As a result, the six-month change in the index remains negative. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico also improved in September, and its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady throughout this year. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the economy is likely to expand, but the rate of expansion will likely slow further in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in September. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are the industrial production construction component, stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and  the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil.  Net insufficient inventories decreased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in September.

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in September. The positive contributors — from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one — are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production.  Retail sales declined in September.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 121.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in August and also increased 0.3 percent in July.  During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.9 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 P.M. November 14, 2012.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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