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Released: Friday, September 21, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in July.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased sharply in July following three consecutive declines. The (inverted) real exchange rate and oil prices made the largest positive contributions to the index.  Between January and July 2012, the leading economic index increased by 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate), about the same rate of increase as for the previous six months. The strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in July. The six-month growth rate of the coincident economic index was 2.1 percent (about a 4.3 percent annual rate) between January and July 2012, about the same rate of increase as for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2012, down from 4.9 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
  • The LEI for Mexico increased sharply in July after declining in the past three months. With the gain in July, the index’s six-month growth rate is now about the same as  it was in the beginning of this year.  Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico also increased in July, and its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady since the beginning of this year. Taken together, the recent behavior in the composite indexes suggests that the current rate of economic expansion is likely to continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in July. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are the (inverted) real exchange rate,  the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component, and stock prices.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 1.5 percent increase in July, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 122.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.7 percent in both June and May.  During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.4 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in July. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are industrial production, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), and retail sales.  

With the increase of 0.4 percent in July, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 120.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in June and increased 0.3 percent in May.  During the six-month span through July, the index increased 2.1 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. September 19, 2012. There are no series that are based on The Conference Board estimates.

NOTE: Beginning with this release, several data series in both The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico will now be provided by Haver Analytics. As a result, some data series have been revised, but these changes do not affect the overall cyclical properties of the indexes.  For more information about these changes please contact indicators@conferenceboard.org .

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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