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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Thursday, May 24, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.6 percent in March.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell slightly in March following two sharp increases. Large declines in net insufficient inventories and the construction component of industrial production more than offset positive contributions from stock prices and oil prices. Despite the decline in March, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index continued to pick up, to 2.9 percent (about a 5.8 percent annual rate) between September 2011 and March 2012, from a decline of 1.1 percent (about a -2.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased in March. Between September 2011 and March 2012, the coincident economic index increased by 2.8 percent (about a 5.7 percent annual rate), up from 1.7 percent (about a 3.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread in recent months, with all components increasing. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 5.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2012, up from the revised 2.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell slightly in March, but its six-month growth rate continued to pick up from the fourth quarter of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico remained on an upward trend that started in mid-2009, and its six-month growth continued to improve with widespread strengths. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current economic expansion is likely to continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in March. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are stock prices, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the (inverted) real exchange rate.  Net insufficient inventories and the industrial production construction component decreased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in March.

With the 0.2 percent decrease in March, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 122.4 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 1.0 percent in February and increased 1.3 percent in January.  During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.9 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in March. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales.

With the increase of 0.6 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 120.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in February and increased 0.6 percent in January.  During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.8 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. May 23, 2012. There are no series that are based on The Conference Board estimates.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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