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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Thursday, April 26, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.0 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.9 percent in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased again in February, with real exchange rate and oil prices making the largest positive contributions. Between August 2011 and February 2012, the leading economic index increased by 2.4 percent (about a 4.9 percent annual rate), up from the growth of 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in February, with all three components advancing. With the gain in February, the coincident economic index increased by 2.7 percent (about a 5.4 percent annual rate) between August 2011 and February 2012, up from 1.7 percent (about a 3.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread in recent months, with all components increasing. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from the 5.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has increased in three of the last six months including two large gains in the last two months, and its six-month growth rate has picked up somewhat as a result. Moreover, the index is now above its most recent peak reached in April 2008. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued on the upward trend that started in mid-2009, and its six-month growth rate has also improved. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue and it could even pick up somewhat in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are the (inverted) real exchange rate, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and stock prices.  Net insufficient inventories and the industrial production construction component decreased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in February.

With the 1.0 percent increase in February, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 122.7 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 1.3 percent in January and declined 0.2 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.4 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are industrial production, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), and retail sales.  

With the increase of 0.9 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 119.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in January and decreased 0.5 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.7 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. April 25, 2012. There are no series that were based on The Conference Board’s estimates.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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