Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, January 25, 2012
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased sharply in November following three consecutive declines, as oil prices and the net insufficient inventories component made the largest positive contributions to the index. Despite the gain, in the six-month period ending November 2012, the leading economic index continued to fall – by 0.2 percent (about a
-0.3 percent annual rate), down from the increase of 2.0 percent (about a 4.1 percent annual rate) from November 2010 to May 2011. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have become slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in November. All coincident indicators advanced this month. Between May and November 2011, the coincident economic index increased 2.3 percent (about a 4.6 percent annual rate), up from the 1.4 percent increase (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread in recent months, with all components increasing. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 5.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter of this year, slightly up from the 5.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
- The large gain of The Conference Board LEI for Mexico in November following three monthly decreases was not sufficient to lift the index above its level six months ago, though the pace of contraction slowed substantially in November compared to the previous two months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued on the upward trend that started in mid-2009, with widespread strengths among its components during the past six months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will continue to expand, but near -term risks of slower growth remain.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in November. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component, and stock prices. The (inverted) real exchange rate decreased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in November.
With the 1.3 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 120.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in October and declined 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index declined 0.2 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in November. The positive contributors —from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 117.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in October and increased 0.5 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 2.3 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. January 23, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.
* There are no series in The Conference Board LEI for Mexico that was based on The Conference Board estimates. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.