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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Wednesday, December 21, 2011

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in October following two large declines.  Large negative contributions from the industrial production construction component and the real exchange rate (inverted) more than offset positive contributions from stock prices. With this month’s decline, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index remained negative – it fell by 2.0 percent (about a -3.9 percent annual rate) from April to October, significantly down from a 3.3 percent increase (about a 6.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been balanced in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in October. Between April and October 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate), about the same as the rate of growth between October 2010 and April 2011. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread in recent months, with all components increasing. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 5.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter of this year, slightly up from the 5.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined in October for a third consecutive month, and its six-month growth rate returned to negative territory as a result. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued its gradual upward trend that started in mid-2009, and its six-month growth rate has remained relatively stable this year. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will continue to expand, but near term risks of a slowdown remain.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in October. The positive contributors to the index—from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—are stock prices and net insufficient inventories. The industrial production construction component and the (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in October.  The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.5 percent decrease in October, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 118.4 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in September and declined 1.1 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index declined by 2.0 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in October. The positive contributors were number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales.  Industrial production declined in October.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 117.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in September and increased 0.3 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.9 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. December 19, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI for Mexico. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico based on The Conference Board estimates is retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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