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Released: Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.7 percent while The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in September.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined again in September, and has declined for three of the last five months.  The real exchange rate (inverted), stock prices, and oil prices all made large negative contributions to the index. With this month’s decline, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index has turned negative – it is now at -1.3 percent (about a -2.6 percent annual rate) from March to September this year, significantly down from 3.8 percent (about a 7.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been balanced in the last six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in September, as employment increased sharply. Between March and September 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate), lower than the 2.0 percent increase (about a 4.0 percent annual rate) between September 2010 and March 2011. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 5.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter of this year, slightly up from the 5.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined again in September, and its upward trend which started in mid-2010 has paused in recent months. As a result, its six-month growth rate has turned negative for the first time since the end of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued its gradual upward trend that started in mid-2009, and its six-month growth rate has remained relatively stable this year. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will continue to expand slowly, but near term risks of a slowdown remain.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in September. The positive contributors to the index—from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—are the industrial production construction component and net insufficient inventories.  The (inverted) real exchange rate, stock prices, and the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil decreased in September.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.7 percent decrease in September, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 118.6 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 1.1 percent in August and remained unchanged in July.  During the six-month span through September, the index declined 1.3 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in September. The positive contributors —from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production.  Retail sales declined in September.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 116.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July.  During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.5 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. November 22, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* There are no forecasted series in either The Conference Board LEI for Mexico or The Conference Board CEI for Mexico.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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