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Released: Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in August.

 

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined sharply in August following small increases in the last two months.  The weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread this month, and oil prices and the (inverted) real exchange rate both made large negative contributions to the index. With this month’s decline, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index continued to slow, to 0.3 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate) from February to August this year, significantly down from 3.3 percent (about a 6.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in the last six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in August. Gains in employment and retail sales more than offset a negative contribution from industrial production. Between February and August 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.6 percent (about a 3.2 percent annual rate), slightly lower than the 1.9 percent increase (about a 3.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 4.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2011, after increasing at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined sharply in August, and its upward trend which started in mid-2010 has paused in recent months. Its six-month growth rate has also slowed significantly as a result. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued its gradual upward trend that started in mid-2009, and its six-month growth has remained relatively stable this year. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will continue to expand, albeit at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  One of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in August. The positive contributor to the index was the industrial production construction component.  The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the (inverted) real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, and stock prices decreased in August.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 1.2 percent decrease in August, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 119.5 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in July and increased 0.2 percent in June.  During the six-month span through August, the index increased 0.3 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 41.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in August. The positive contributors —from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries)* and retail sales.  Industrial production declined in August.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 116.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in July and increased 0.3 percent in June.  During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.6 percent, with all of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. October 26, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* There are no forecasted series in either The Conference Board LEI for Mexico or The Conference Board CEI for Mexico.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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