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Released: Thursday, June 23, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Mexico increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index ® (CEI) decreased 0.3 percent in April.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased again in April, with oil prices and the real exchange rate (inverted) making large positive contributions. The six-month change in the leading economic index stands at 3.3 percent (a 6.8 percent annual rate) in the period through April 2011, up from -0.1 percent (a -0.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread and the number of components rising has been only slightly more than those falling in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico fell in April, as industrial production declined sharply. Index levels were revised down in recent months due mainly to revisions to employment. Between October 2010 to April 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.5 percent (a 3.0 percent annual rate), slightly below the increase of 1.7 percent (3.5 percent annual rate). However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, down from growth of 4.6 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased again in April, and its six-month growth rate has remained within a narrow range in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, fell this month, although it has been on a general upward trend since mid-2009. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes continues to suggest that economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributors to the index—from the larger positive contributor—are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the (inverted) real exchange rate. Net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component, and stock prices decreased in April. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.5 percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 120.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in March and declined 0.1 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 3.3 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 58.3 percent.

COINCIDENT INDICATORS One of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributor was the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Industrial production declined, while retail sales* remained unchanged in April.

 

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. June 21, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico based on The Conference Board estimates is retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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