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Released: Thursday, April 28, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index ® (CEI) increased 0.6 percent in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined modestly in February, the first decrease since the middle of last year. Large negative contributions from net insufficient inventories and industrial production (construction) more than offset positive contributions from oil prices and the real exchange rate (inverted). The six-month change in the leading economic index stands at 3.3 percent (about a 6.7 percent annual rate) in the period through February 2011, up from 0.8 percent (a 1.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased for the second consecutive month in February, with all its components advancing. The coincident economic index rose 2.2 percent (about a 4.5 percent annual rate) between August 2010 and February 2011, in line with the growth for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 5.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 3.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell this month for the first time since the middle of 2010. However, its six-month growth rate remains substantially stronger than in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, remains on an upward trend, and its six-month growth rate has been relatively steady in recent months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes continues to suggest that economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest —are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and stock prices.  Net insufficient inventories and the industrial production construction component decreased in February.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.2 percent decrease in February, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 119.2 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in January and increased 0.2 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index increased 3.3 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are number of people employed (measured by total IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales. 

With the increase of 0.6 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 114.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in January and decreased 0.4 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.2 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. April 26, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: No series were estimated this month.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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