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Released: Thursday, March 24, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in January.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico continued to increase in January. Index levels were revised slightly upwards for the past several months due mainly to revisions to net insufficient inventories. Large positive contributions from industrial production (construction) and the real exchange rate (inverted) more than offset the sharp decline in stock prices. The six-month change in the leading economic index has picked up to 4.1 percent (an 8.4 percent annual rate) in the period through January 2011, up from 0.3 percent (a 0.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in January, following a decline in December that was driven by a sharp fall in employment*. The six-month change in the index has moderated to 1.8 percent (a 3.6 percent annual rate) in the period through January 2011, down from 2.7 percent (a 5.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 5.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 3.2 percent in the third quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico remains on an upward trend, and its six-month growth rate has continued to pick up in the past three months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, has been essentially flat for the past several months, after rising steadily since the middle of 2009. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that, despite recent volatility, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in January. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the industrial production construction component, the (inverted) real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, and the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil.  Stock prices decreased in January.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.8 percent increase in January, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 119.5 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in December and increased 1.3 percent in November.  During the six-month span through January, the index increased 4.1 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  One of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in January. The positive contributor was industrial production.  Retail sales declined, while number of people employed (measured by total IMSS beneficiaries)* remained unchanged in January.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in January, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 113.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in December and increased 0.5 percent in November.  During the six-month span through January, the index increased 1.8 percent, with all components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. March 23, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico based on The Conference Board estimates is employment (measured by IMSS beneficiaries).

CORRECTION NOTICE: On March 23, 2011, a technical database error that affected one component of the CEI for Mexico in December 2010 was corrected.  The component was number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). As a result, the level and monthly change for December 2010 for the CEI was lower than initially reported on February 25, 2011. There were also smaller data revisions in the other components. However, the historical cyclical behavior of both the coincident economic index and the leading economic index was not affected by the database error or its correction.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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