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Released: Friday, February 25, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for Mexico remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index ® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in December.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico was unchanged in December, following five consecutive monthly increases. Large positive contributions from oil prices and stock prices offset substantial negative contributions from net insufficient inventories, industrial production (construction component) and the real exchange rate (inverted). The six-month change in the leading economic index has picked up to 3.1 percent (about a 6.4 percent annual rate) for the second half of 2010, from 0.3 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate) for the first half of the year. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread for the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued to increase in December, with industrial production and retail sales advancing. The index rose 2.3 percent (a 4.7 percent annual rate) in the second half of 2010, slightly slower than the growth of 2.8 percent (a 5.6 percent annual rate) in the first half of the year. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all three components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 5.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 3.2 percent in the third quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico was on a generally rising trend in the second half of 2010, and its six-month growth rate picked up towards the end of the year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, has been on an upward trend since the middle of 2009, and its growth rate has been fairly steady in recent months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that despite recent volatility, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in December. The positive contributors to the index—from the larger positive contributor—are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and stock prices.  Net insufficient inventories, the industrial production (construction component), and the (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in December.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

Holding steady in December, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 118.3 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 1.3 percent in November and increased 0.9 percent in October.  During the six-month span through December, the index increased 3.1 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in December. The positive contributors —from the larger positive contributor—are industrial production and retail sales.  The number of people employed (measured by IMSS total beneficiaries) remained unchanged in December.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in December, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 114.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in November and increased 0.4 percent in October.  During the six-month span through December, the index increased 2.3 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. February 23, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There were no estimated series for this month.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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