Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, January 28, 2011
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index ® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased sharply again in November, with almost all its components contributing positively to the index. The six-month change in the leading economic index has accelerated to 3.4 percent (a 6.9 percent annual rate) in the period through November 2010, up from 1.1 percent (a 2.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become very widespread over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued to increase in November, with all its components advancing. The index increased 2.2 percent (a 4.4 percent annual rate) between May and November 2010, slightly slower than the growth of 2.8 percent (a 5.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all three components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following an increase of 9.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has rebounded in the past several months after declining modestly in the middle of 2010, and its six-month growth rate has picked up lately. With this gain, the leading economic index is just 2.7 percent below its previous peak in April 2008. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, has been on an upward trend since the middle of 2009. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that despite recent volatility, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace, and could even pick up somewhat in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in November. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one—are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the industrial production construction component, the (inverted) real exchange rate, stock prices, and net insufficient inventories. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.
With the 1.7 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 118.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.0 percent in October and increased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 3.4 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in November. The positive contributors—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are number of people employed (measured by IMSS total beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 113.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in October and increased 0.5 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 2.2 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
*See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. January 25, 2011. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico based on The Conference Board estimates is retail sales.
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.