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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Thursday, June 24, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.5 percent in April.

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  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased again in April. Oil prices, the real exchange rate, and net insufficient inventories made large positive contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting the declines in industrial production (construction component) and stock prices. The six-month change in the index stands at 5.0 percent (about a 10.3 percent annual rate), up from 3.9 percent (an 8.0 percent annual rate) at the start of the year. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico also increased in April, with industrial production making the largest positive contribution. The six-month change in the index has picked up to 3.3 percent (a 6.6 percent annual rate) in the period through April 2010, up from 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all three components increasing over the past six months. However, real GDP declined at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2010, after expanding at a 9.0 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2010.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has been on a general upward trend for more than a year now, amid widespread strength among its components. In addition, its six-month growth rate has picked up lately. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, has been improving since July 2009, and its six-month change has been fairly stable in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic conditions will continue to improve in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are the US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil , the (inverted) real exchange rate,  and net insufficient inventories.  The industrial production construction component and stock prices decreased in April.  The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.7 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 119.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 1.5 percent in March and remained unchanged in February.  During the six-month span through April, the index increased 5.0 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 91.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are industrial production, number of people employed (measured by total IMSS beneficiaries), and retail sales.

With the increase of 0.5 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 110.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in March and increased 0.7 percent in February.  During the six-month span through April, the index increased 3.3 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. June 22, 2010. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: In April, there were no forecasted components.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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