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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Wednesday, March 24, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in January.

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  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in January, rising for the eleventh consecutive month. Oil prices and the net insufficient inventories component made large positive contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting negative contributions from stock prices and the construction component of industrial production. The six-month growth rate in the index continued to slow, to 4.5 percent (a 9.1 percent annual rate), down from 10.7 percent (about a 22.6 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending August 2009. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico also increased in January, with employment making the largest positive contribution to the index. The coincident economic index increased 2.9 percent (about a 5.9 percent annual rate) between July 2009 and January 2010, a reversal from the decline of 2.3 percent (a -4.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all the components rising over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew at an 8.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2009, following an increase of 10.4 percent annual rate in the previous quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has been on an uptrend for almost a year now, but its six-month growth rate has continued to slow in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, has been increasing since July of last year, and its six-month growth rate appears to have stabilized in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the improvement in economic activity will continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in January. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, and the (inverted) real exchange rate. Stock prices and the industrial production construction component decreased in January. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.7 percent increase in January, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 117.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in December and increased 1.9 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 4.5 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in January, with number of people employed (measured by IMSS total beneficiaries) making the largest positive contribution, followed by industrial production, and retail sales*.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in January, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 108.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in December and increased 0.9 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 2.9 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. March 22, 2010. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales. None of the components in The Conference Board LEI for Mexico were estimated.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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