Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, July 18, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.7 percent and the coincident index increased 0.5 percent in May.
- The leading index increased again in May for the third consecutive month. Stock prices and net insufficient inventory components contributed largely to the gain in this month. With the increase in May, the six-month growth rate of the leading index picked up to 1.6 percent (a 3.3 percent annual rate), an improvement from the 2.1 percent decline in January. However, this is still down from the rapid growth of about a 6.0 to 7.0 percent annual rate in the middle of 2006, and the strengths among the leading indicators have not been very widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index also increased in May, and industrial production and the (inverted) unemployment rate continued to be the main positive contributors to the index. At the same time, real GDP slowed to a 0.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2007, down from the 2.1 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2006. Despite the improvement in recent months, the behavior of the composite indexes so far still suggests that slow economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are stock prices, net insufficient inventories, the (inverted) real exchange rate, the US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the industrial production construction component*. The (inverted) federal funds rate decreased in May.
With the 0.7 percent increase in May, the leading index now stands at 162.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in April and increased 1.0 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.6 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are industrial production, the (inverted) unemployment rate, and number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries)*. Retail sales*declined in May.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 118.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in April and remained unchanged in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. July 17, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production — construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales and unemployment rate.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.