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Released: Wednesday, January 17, 2007

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.6 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in November.

  • The leading index increased in November, and the slight decline in October was revised up as actual data for the construction component of industrial production became available. Despite November's increase, the six-month growth rate of the leading index is still 0.2 percent below zero (a -0.5 percent annual rate), down from the range of about 6.0 to 7.0 percent (annual rate) in the middle of the year. However, most of the weakness in the last several months came from the oil prices component, and the strengths and weaknesses among the other leading indicators have continued to be balanced.
  • The coincident index also increased in November, and it is still on a flat to slightly rising trend. At the same time, real GDP slowed to a 3.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2006, down from the 5.3 percent average annual rate in the first half of the year. Despite short-term volatility, the recent behavior in the leading index still suggests that the economy is likely to continue growing at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and net insufficient inventories. The US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the industrial production construction component* decreased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in November.

With the 0.6 percent increase in November, the leading index now stands at 160.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and declined 1.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 0.2 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 58.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries)*, the (inverted) unemployment rate, industrial production, and retail sales*.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 118.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. January 16, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production — construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales and unemployment rate.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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