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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Tuesday, August 22, 2006

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico declined 0.1 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in June.

  • The leading index fell slightly in June following sharp gains in the previous three months. Despite the slight decline in June, the leading index continued to grow at about a 6.0 percent annual rate. This is an improvement from earlier this year, but is still below the rapid growth of 14 percent (annual rate) through the third quarter of 2005. However, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been balanced in recent months.
  • The coincident index increased again in June, keeping it on a slightly rising trend since the beginning of 2005. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 5.7 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2006 (including a 4.5 percent rate in the second quarter), up from the 3.9 percent average rate over the previous two quarters. Despite short-term volatility, the recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy is likely to grow at a moderate to strong rate in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index-from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one-are net insufficient inventories, stock prices, and the US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil. The (inverted) real exchange rate and the industrial production construction component* decreased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in June.

With the 0.1 percent decrease in June, the leading index now stands at 160.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in May and increased 1.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 3.3 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors -from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one-are industrial production, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries)*, and the (inverted) unemployment rate. Retail sales* remained unchanged in June.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 118.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in May and increased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.6 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. August 21, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales and unemployment rate.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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